Markets, prices and trade
In the aftermath of the food price crisis of 2007/08 and the ensuing repeated price volatility, the annual medium-term outlook exercise carried out in partnership with the FAO has proven extremely valuable to policy-makers and market analysts. Special features on China, India and Brazil have enabled a deeper understanding of these major players on world markets. The 2016 edition of the Outlook will focus on the prospects for food and agriculture markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years, OECD has acquired short-term market outlook expertise through participation in the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS – led by FAO). Motivated by governments’ needs to develop robust and flexible policy strategies to deal with risks and uncertainties surrounding the long-term future of the agriculture and food sector, OECD has developed an “alternative futures” exercise, based on scenario analysis.
During 2011, under the auspices of the French Presidency of the G20, OECD and FAO led a group of international organisations in the preparation of a report entitled Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses. This report included comprehensive recommendations to governments on actions, long- and short-term, to be taken to prevent or reduce volatility and to mitigate its consequences. OECD’s participation in the AMIS, which concentrates on policy drivers of short-term market developments, grew out of this G20 collaboration. Based on in-depth study of policy responses to the food price crisis and drawing on the different modelling tools at its disposal, OECD has contributed to ongoing reflections about the impact of different types of policies – export and import restrictions, biofuel support – on markets, trade and prices, including on price volatility.
Responding to ongoing concerns about market structure – concentration and non-competitive practices, the committee has facilitated dialogue with business and civil society interests through the Food Chain Analysis Network and has surveyed governmental responses to the 2007/08 food price hikes and continuing subsequent volatility.
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011
- OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010
- Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
- Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture
- Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses (2011)
OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
- World Wheat Price Volatility (N°59, 2012)
- Stochastic Model Development and Price Volatility Analysis (N°57, 2012)
- Structural Change in Commodity Markets: Have Agricultural Markets Become Thinner? (N°54, 2012)
- International Agreements for Commodity Price Stabilisation: An Assessment (N°53, 2011)
- Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview (N°52, 2011)
- Potential Market Effects of Selected Policy Options in Emerging Economies to Address Future Commodity Price Surges (N°35, 2010)
- Policy Responses in Emerging Economies to International Agricultural Commodity Price Surges (N°34, 2010)
- Demand Growth in Developing Countries(N°29, 2010)
- The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results (N°27, 2010)